October 2016 Commentary: BOO!!!!
October was frightening but not unexpected. September and October are generally the two worst months in terms of market performance each year. This October, the specter of an unhinged political landscape, Janet Yellen’s promise to raise interest rates, and earnings season have taken their toll on the market’s performance. The Russell 2000 was down (4.75%) this month, as was the S&P 500 (1.82%). This is why we all must be long term investors and maintain liquidity at all costs. There is no way to do what is suggested on entertainment shows like CNBC. They seem to think it is valuable advice to let investors know when to get invested and when to go to cash. I would simply say that this is a fairy tale. The general economic foulness that infected the month of October along with the fun political games were mainly related to interest rates and healthcare. The two industry areas that were the most negative in this month were REITs and healthcare related stocks. Additionally, pharmaceutical and biotech companies have suffered. The ever increasing costs of health insurance for employers and workers also adds to the October pain. In the REIT world, it’s simple. Yellen will raise rates in December, and interest rate sensitive stocks are most negatively affected by her action. Therefore, REITs generally will have a decline in this environment.
So, is there any good news? Yes. While the S&P has been down in October, it is up 5.8% YTD. Relatively low interest rates should keep the housing market alive, and any change from the current political administration is probably seen by the market as refreshing. The possibility of compromise is back in the wind, and the holidays are nearly here. We can leave the pundits behind for a while and focus on our families. For me, this is generally a net positive as I hope it is for you.
A.G. Campbell Advisory, LLC